The Philippines’ inflation rate quickened to 7.2 percent in April as food and fuel costs surged, the Philippine Statistics Authority said on Tuesday.

The April clip was faster than the 4.1 percent inflation rate in March, and was also above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ forecast of between 5.6 and 6.4 percent. It was also much higher than the 2 to 4 percent target range set by economic managers.

The last time the inflation rate was near this high was in March 2023 when it hit 7.6 percent.

PSA Undersecretary and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa said the main drivers for inflation last month were the surging costs of rice and fuels.

Food inflation quickened to 6.1 percent in April 2026 from 2.7 percent in the previous month. Rice prices increased by 13.7 percent during the month, from 3.5 percent in March 2026, the PSA said.

Transport costs also surged by 21.4 percent in April 2026 from 9.9 percent in the previous month, and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 8.2 percent during the month from 4.7 percent in the previous month.

Maps noted that in April, diesel prices skyrocketed by 124 percent, while gasoline prices surged 60.5 percent. LPG prices meanwhile increased 44.7 percent.

Inflation was even worse for the poorest households. The PSA said that for the bottom 30 percent of the population, inflation hit 8.5 percent.

For the first four months of the year, inflation averaged 3.9 percent, which was touching the upper limit of the government’s 2 to 4 percent target range.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy items that are prone to big swings, also increased to 3.9 percent in April 2026 from 3.2 percent in March 2026.

FOOD INFLATION RISK

While stressing that the agency will continue to monitor oil prices, Mapa said the real risk “would be on the food side.”

He noted that prices of fish and vegetables have been increasing amid higher fuel prices. Fishers don’t go out to sea as often because the cost of fuel has risen dramatically.

“So pag konti ang lumalabas o hindi lumalabas yung ating mga fisherfolks, siyempre bumababa ang ating production,” he explained.

The Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev) said the government is intensifying targeted interventions, particularly to temper upward price pressures on food, energy, and transport.

“Our priority is to ensure stable fuel supply, manageable prices, and adequate protection for all sectors amid ongoing domestic and global challenges,” said Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan.

OFF-CYCLE RATE HIKE?

BPI Lead Economist Emilio Neri, Jr., meanwhile, warned that the full impact of the Middle East conflict has yet to be felt despite inflation already hitting 7.2 percent.

“With oil prices still elevated, second-round effects are likely to build as upward adjustments in wages and transport fares begin to transmit cost pressures more broadly across goods and services,” Neri said.

With inflation already exceeding even the BSP’s forecast, Neri said the central bank may opt for an off-cycle rate hike, as the next BSP meeting is still weeks away.

“The BSP may deliver rate hikes larger than the typical 25 bps, either in a regular or off-cycle meeting, with a more forceful move potentially required to rein in inflation expectations,” Neri said.

He said that the economic damage from high inflation may be more severe than a rate hike which will dampen growth.

See original article here.